Essays on the export performance and provincial growth of China
This dissertation investigates the determinants of China's exports and regional economic growth, the direction of causality between foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports; and convergence analysis among Chinese provinces. The study firstly discusses the evolutional process of China's foreign trade regime through comparing the strategies and policies before 1978 with those after 1978. It is emphasised that the export-promotion development policies result in the recent basic export patterns and characteristics. Furthermore, the study reviews the existing literature on exports, FDI, and convergence/growth determinants in the case of China. The empirical work comprises three parts. Firstly, fixed-effects ordinary least squares (OLS) and random-effects generalised least squares (GLS) panel data estimators are applied to test the determinants of provincial exports from 1994 to 2003. It is found that FDI, geographical location, investment in manufacturing innovation, and human capital have significant influences on regional export performance. Secondly, the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) tests are carried out to test stationarity and the Granger causality tests are conducted to test the causal direction between FDI and exports, based on monthly national data from January, 2002 to June, 2006. The empirical results indicate that there is a one-way complementary causal link from FDI inflows to China's export flows. Thirdly, three methods, beta convergence, sigma convergence, and Markov Chain analysis, are used to do convergence debate among China's regions and the standard OLS cross-section and random-effects GLS panel data are applied to test the conditional convergence. The results suggest that the convergence hypothesis does not hold in China between 1994 and 2003 and there is a sign of conditional convergence, conditioning the explanatory variables such as exports, human capital, and population growth.
- ETD@PUK