Conceptualisation of the consequences of land use decisions on water resources in the central region of South Africa: an agent based modelling perspective
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Date
2008Author
Woyessa, Y E
Welderufael, W A
Kinyua, J D M
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Over the past few decades, numerous researchers have improved measurements of land
use change through representation of much more complex processes of land use and its
impact on water resources. Understanding the causes of land use change has moved
from a simplistic representation of a few driving forces to a much more detailed
understanding that involves situation-specific interactions among a large number of
factors at different spatial and temporal scales using agent-based models. The agentbased
perspective is centred on the general nature and rules of land use decision
making by individuals and represents the motivations behind decisions and the external
factors that influence decisions about land use. In this paper, an attempt is made to
conceptualise the social and biophysical interactions as the driving forces that lead to
decisions of land use, and its potential impact on water resource, including factors such
as interventions and technologies that influence the decision of land use change in rural
agricultural areas. The development of the conceptual model was done through a series
of meetings and workshops and by visualising the relationships between the different
factors, such as biophysical and socio-economic factors, using a brain mapping technique.
The resulting conceptual model illustrates the main domains of the environment, the
socioeconomic factors, and captures all the factors and their interaction that lead to
decision in land use change. The socio-economic factors and their interaction will be
captured by the ABM module while the biophysical factors that have direct impact on
runoff and stream flow could be handled by the hydrologic module which will then be
integrated into the ABM model. This, however, is a primary effort in the development of
an ABM within the Modder River Basin system and needs continues refinement for
optimum functionality and simulation of the real world.