'n Beleggingsmodel vir die waardasie van gewone aandele genoteer in die finansiële en nywerheidsektore van die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs
Steicher, Simon Jacobus
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The investment world is still struggling with the following two basic questions: Is it possible to achieve above average investment profits on a risk adjusted basis through the implementation of share analysis techniques? Is it possible to decrease the personal cost attached to share analysis to such an extent that someone with full-time responsibilities will be able to earn above average investment profits while investing minimal free time? The purpose of the research was to develop a new investment model which will assist the portfolio manager with decisions pertaining to share selection and timing of transactions in order to achieve superior investment results. It was also the intention that the research should throw new light on the questions above. The investment model was developed by utilitization of the collective knowledge and experience of numerous researchers and practising organisations in the investment field. This knowledge was combined with the author's own experience of investment in ordinary shares over the past thirteen years. The repeatability of the model's results showed clearly that it is possible to achieve superior investment profits consistently. The model was updated four times and each updated version was utilised for portfolio selection. The selected portfolios outperformed the corresponding index of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange consistently. This result creates a problem for the followers of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The superior investment results referred to above were achieved by investing only eight manhours per year into the model! This was the time needed to update and repeat the model. All the share transactions were executed in only one day of each year. It must be stressed, however, that the model is not a magic formula which will never fail. It must be refined from time to time (especially after each failure) in order to be a dynamic and flexible aid.