Analysis of short– and long–run interactions between the stock market and prices of different sizes of properties in South Africa
Mutangwa, Mishumo Clifford
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Stock and property markets are regarded as investment alternatives and the interaction between these two markets has been established. However, there is a debate on whether this interaction starts from the property market, as explained by the credit-price effect, or from the stock market, as explained by the wealth effect. This study used monthly observations, rolling from January 2004 to December 2014, to analyze the interactions between stock and property markets in South Africa. The VAR model and Johansen co-integration approach were used to capture the short- and long-run relationships between the South African stock market index and the property prices for small, medium and large houses. Findings of this study revealed that there is a long-run relationship between the stock market and property prices for small and medium houses; while there was no long-run interaction between the stock market and prices of large houses. This study further found that the wealth effect explains the interaction between stock market and prices of small and medium houses; while the credit-price effect explains in the interaction between stock market and prices of large houses. This study concluded that the interactions between the two markets tend to change with the size of houses in the property market.