A decomposition analysis of fertility rate in South Africa by population - groups and provinces

Abstract

This study is about examining how fertility in South Africa is affected by changes in marriage patterns, changes in marriage fertility, non-marital fertility and age sex structure, across Provinces and Population groups. South Africa has experienced a decrease in fertility since the 1960s. South Africa is one of the first countries in sub-Saharan Africa to experience fertility decline. The problem is that very little has been researched on the underlying effects, contributors to the decline, reference to changes in marriage, changes in marriage fertility, changes in age-sex structure and by how much these variables contribute to the decline? The main objective of the study was to decompose fertility rate of South Africa by population groups and provinces. The study used data from the 1996, 2001 and 2011 population censuses conducted by Statistics South Africa and the Das Gupta decomposition method to establish the contribution of age-sex structure and marriage on the observed changes in fertility in South Africa. The Total Fertility Rate of South Africa has been declining and continues to decline, the results from this study show that between 1996, 2001 and 2011 fertility was indeed declining i.e from 3.22 in 1996, to 2.85 in 2001 and then to 2.74 in 2011. A similar pattern can be seen in population groups which showed a decreasing trend between 1996 and 2011, with the highest TFR being the black population at 2.91 as at 2011 followed by Coloured at 2.67 and then Indians at 1.74 and the lowest being the White population .group at 1.50. The proportion of women in the population contributed to the decrease in total fertility rate between 1996 and 2001, and between 2001 and 2011 changes in the non-marital fertility also contributed to the decrease in the total fertility rate of South Africa. Crude birth rate on the other hand indicates that the decrease between 1996 and 2001 was due to proportion women and non-marital fertility and between 2001 and 2011 non-marital fertility contributed to the decrease in Crude birth rate.